Fossombrone vs Ancona: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 25Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, Fossombrone
The Footlab AI model makes Ancona the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fossombrone vs Ancona?
Ancona starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,737 vs 1,593).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fossombrone vs Ancona
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fossombrone
Not enough data to predict the Fossombrone lineup.
Ancona
Not enough data to predict the Ancona lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fossombrone have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Ancona have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Vigor Senigallia(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lanciano FC(home) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Giulianova(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sporting Trestina(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Angelana(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | L'Aquila(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Fossombrone win, 4 draws, 1 Ancona win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Ancona 1-1 Fossombrone | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Fossombrone 1-2 Ancona | Serie D - Girone F |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Ancona 1-2 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fossombrone 0-0 Ancona | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Fossombrone 1-1 Ancona | Serie D - Girone F |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Ancona 1-1 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
How many goals should we expect?
Fossombrone score 0.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ancona score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fossombrone | 0.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Ancona | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fossombrone sit 10th in Serie D - Girone F (10 points from 7 matches) and Ancona sit 4th (14 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ancona | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 14 |
| 10 | Fossombrone | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
A question about Fossombrone vs Ancona?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fossombrone vs Ancona?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ancona the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Fossombrone.
- Where and when is Fossombrone vs Ancona played?
- Fossombrone vs Ancona is played on February 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 21, 2027MaceratesevsNotaresco
- Feb 21, 2027Sporting TrestinavsPietralunga
- Feb 21, 2027Real GiulianovavsFoligno Calcio
- Feb 21, 2027Termoli CalciovsTeramo
- Feb 21, 2027Vigor SenigalliavsSantegidiese
- Feb 21, 2027L'AquilavsRecanatese
- Feb 21, 2027AngelanavsMontecchio Gallo
- Feb 21, 2027Lanciano FCvsAtletico Ascoli