Where and when is Ancona vs Fossombrone played?

Ancona vs Fossombrone is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio del Conero, in the Serie D - Girone F.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Ancona vs Fossombrone: prediction and stats

Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio del Conero, Ancona

Ancona

Fossombrone

The Footlab model makes Ancona the favourite at 59%, against 26% for a draw and 14% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Ancona vs Fossombrone?

Ancona starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (1,799 vs 1,673).

Ancona win59 %

Draw26 %

Fossombrone win14 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ancona have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Fossombrone have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Ancona
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Notaresco(home)	1-3	Serie D - Girone F
May 3, 2026	Notaresco(home)	1-1	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 26, 2026	L'Aquila(away)	0-0	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 19, 2026	Sammaurese(home)	3-0	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 12, 2026	Fossombrone(away)	2-1	Serie D - Girone F

Fossombrone
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 1, 2026	Cesena(away)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	Recanatese(away)	0-2	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 26, 2026	Castelfidardo Calcio(home)	3-1	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 19, 2026	Atletico Ascoli(away)	1-1	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 12, 2026	Ancona(home)	1-2	Serie D - Girone F

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Ancona win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Fossombrone win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 12, 2026	Fossombrone 1-2 Ancona	Serie D - Girone F
Nov 30, 2025	Ancona 1-2 Fossombrone	Serie D - Girone F
Oct 8, 2025	Fossombrone 0-0 Ancona	Coppa Italia Serie D
Apr 17, 2025	Fossombrone 1-1 Ancona	Serie D - Girone F
Dec 8, 2024	Ancona 1-1 Fossombrone	Serie D - Girone F

Last archived meeting: Fossombrone vs Ancona on Apr 12, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Ancona score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Fossombrone score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Ancona	1.3	1.0	4	7/15	6/15
Fossombrone	0.7	1.3	4	6/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Ancona sit 2nd in Serie D - Girone F (76 points from 34 matches) and Fossombrone sit 9th (44 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Ancona	34	23	7	4	59	22	76
9	Fossombrone	34	11	11	12	28	34	44

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Ancona vs Fossombrone?: The Footlab model makes Ancona the favourite at 59%, against 26% for a draw and 14% for Fossombrone.
Where and when is Ancona vs Fossombrone played?: Ancona vs Fossombrone is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio del Conero, in the Serie D - Girone F.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.