Ancona vs Fossombrone: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio del Conero, Ancona
The Footlab AI model makes Ancona the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ancona vs Fossombrone?
Ancona starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,797 vs 1,654).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ancona vs Fossombrone
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ancona
Not enough data to predict the Ancona lineup.
Fossombrone
Not enough data to predict the Fossombrone lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 07:48 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ancona have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Fossombrone have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Giulianova(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sporting Trestina(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Angelana(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | L'Aquila(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Vigor Senigallia(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lanciano FC(home) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Ancona win, 4 draws, 1 Fossombrone win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Ancona 1-1 Fossombrone | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Fossombrone 1-2 Ancona | Serie D - Girone F |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Ancona 1-2 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fossombrone 0-0 Ancona | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Fossombrone 1-1 Ancona | Serie D - Girone F |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Ancona 1-1 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
How many goals should we expect?
Ancona score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Fossombrone score 0.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ancona | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Fossombrone | 0.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ancona sit 4th in Serie D - Girone F (14 points from 7 matches) and Fossombrone sit 10th (10 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ancona | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 14 |
| 10 | Fossombrone | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
A question about Ancona vs Fossombrone?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ancona vs Fossombrone?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ancona the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Fossombrone.
- Where and when is Ancona vs Fossombrone played?
- Ancona vs Fossombrone is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio del Conero, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026PietralungavsSporting Trestina
- Oct 18, 2026TeramovsTermoli Calcio
- Oct 18, 2026Foligno CalciovsReal Giulianova
- Oct 18, 2026RecanatesevsL'Aquila
- Oct 18, 2026NotarescovsMaceratese
- Oct 18, 2026Atletico AscolivsLanciano FC
- Oct 18, 2026Montecchio GallovsAngelana
- Oct 18, 2026SantegidiesevsVigor Senigallia