L'Aquila vs Recanatese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 25Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Gran Sasso d'Italia, L’Aquila
The Footlab model makes L'Aquila the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Recanatese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win L'Aquila vs Recanatese?
L'Aquila starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,725 vs 1,621).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, L'Aquila have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Recanatese have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ancona(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Ostia Mare(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sammaurese(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Notaresco(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Victor San Marino(home) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Teramo(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sora(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Maceratese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 L'Aquila win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Recanatese win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Recanatese 0-2 L'Aquila | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 24, 2025 | L'Aquila 2-1 Recanatese | Serie D - Girone F |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Recanatese 0-2 L'Aquila | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 22, 2024 | L'Aquila 2-1 Recanatese | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Recanatese vs L'Aquila on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
L'Aquila score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Recanatese score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L'Aquila | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Recanatese | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
L'Aquila sit 6th in Serie D - Girone F (51 points from 34 matches) and Recanatese sit 15th (32 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | L'Aquila | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53 | 44 | 51 |
| 15 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 57 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for L'Aquila vs Recanatese?
- The Footlab model makes L'Aquila the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Recanatese.
- Where and when is L'Aquila vs Recanatese played?
- L'Aquila vs Recanatese is played on February 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Gran Sasso d'Italia, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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