Fossombrone vs Foligno Calcio: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, Fossombrone
The Footlab AI model makes Fossombrone the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Foligno Calcio. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fossombrone wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,617 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fossombrone vs Foligno Calcio?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Fossombrone (1,669) and Foligno Calcio (1,708).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fossombrone vs Foligno Calcio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fossombrone
Not enough data to predict the Fossombrone lineup.
Foligno Calcio
Not enough data to predict the Foligno Calcio lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 06:56 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fossombrone have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Foligno Calcio have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Vigor Senigallia(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lanciano FC(home) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Maceratese(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Angelana(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Montecchio Gallo(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Notaresco(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Recanatese(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone F |
How many goals should we expect?
Fossombrone score 0.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Foligno Calcio score 1.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fossombrone | 0.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Foligno Calcio | 1.1 | 0.8 | 9 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fossombrone sit 10th in Serie D - Girone F (10 points from 7 matches) and Foligno Calcio sit 3rd (16 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Foligno Calcio | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 16 |
| 10 | Fossombrone | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
A question about Fossombrone vs Foligno Calcio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fossombrone vs Foligno Calcio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fossombrone the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Foligno Calcio.
- Where and when is Fossombrone vs Foligno Calcio played?
- Fossombrone vs Foligno Calcio is played on November 22, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.