Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 32Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini, Notaresco
The Footlab AI model makes Notaresco the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Vigor Senigallia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Notaresco wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,771 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Notaresco (1,774) and Vigor Senigallia (1,748).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Notaresco
5-3-2- 10P. Banegas
- 17A. Mancini
- 9Mateus Ribeiro
- 7L. Marchionni
- 4L. Bianciardi
- 6I. Speranza
- 33M. Gallo
- 24R. Di Stefano
- 5G. Colombatti
- 13J. Di Saverio
- 1K. Shiba
Vigor Senigallia
Not enough data to predict the Vigor Senigallia lineup.
Computed on October 28, 2026 at 12:25 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Notaresco have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Vigor Senigallia have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Lanciano FC(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Maceratese(home) | 5-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Recanatese(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Montecchio Gallo(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Pietralunga(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Ancona(home) | 0-5 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Santegidiese(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Teramo(away) | 4-6 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Notaresco wins, 5 draws, 1 Vigor Senigallia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Notaresco 1-1 Vigor Senigallia | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Vigor Senigallia 0-0 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Notaresco 2-2 Vigor Senigallia | Serie D - Girone F |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Vigor Senigallia 2-1 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Vigor Senigallia 0-0 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Notaresco 4-4 Vigor Senigallia | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Notaresco score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Vigor Senigallia score 1.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notaresco | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Vigor Senigallia | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Notaresco sit 5th in Serie D - Girone F (14 points from 8 matches) and Vigor Senigallia sit 3rd (16 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vigor Senigallia | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | Notaresco | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 14 |
A question about Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Notaresco the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Vigor Senigallia.
- Where and when is Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia played?
- Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia is played on April 18, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.