Fossombrone vs Teramo: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 9Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, Fossombrone
The Footlab model makes Teramo the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fossombrone vs Teramo?
Teramo starts as the favourite with a 206-point Elo edge (1,879 vs 1,673).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fossombrone have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Teramo have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cesena(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Recanatese(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Castelfidardo Calcio(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ancona(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Notaresco(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 10, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Recanatese(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Victor San Marino(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Fossombrone win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Teramo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Teramo 2-1 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Fossombrone 0-1 Teramo | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 18, 2025 | Teramo 1-1 Fossombrone | Serie D - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Teramo 1-0 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Fossombrone 4-1 Teramo | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Teramo vs Fossombrone on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fossombrone score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Teramo score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fossombrone | 0.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Teramo | 1.8 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fossombrone sit 9th in Serie D - Girone F (44 points from 34 matches) and Teramo sit 3rd (74 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 65 | 29 | 74 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28 | 34 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fossombrone vs Teramo?
- The Footlab model makes Teramo the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Fossombrone.
- Where and when is Fossombrone vs Teramo played?
- Fossombrone vs Teramo is played on October 25, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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