Maceratese vs Montecchio Gallo: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 9Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Helvia Recina, Macerata
The Footlab AI model makes Montecchio Gallo the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Maceratese. The most likely score is 1-1. If Montecchio Gallo wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maceratese vs Montecchio Gallo?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Maceratese (1,579) and Montecchio Gallo (1,638).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maceratese vs Montecchio Gallo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maceratese
4-3-3- 9Matteo Colombi
- 16Federico Palmieri
- 15D. Allegretti
- 8Alberto Quadri
- 7L. De Grazia
- 10Gianluca Turchetta
- 14Christian Ventola
- 5D. Marchetti
- 6Filippo Gattari
- 4A. Bondioli
- 22F. Forte
Montecchio Gallo
Not enough data to predict the Montecchio Gallo lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 07:47 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maceratese have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Montecchio Gallo have 2, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Foligno Calcio(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Recanatese(away) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Santegidiese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pietralunga(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Ancona(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lanciano FC(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Notaresco(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Foligno Calcio(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Recanatese(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Pietralunga(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
How many goals should we expect?
Maceratese score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Montecchio Gallo score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maceratese | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Montecchio Gallo | 0.8 | 1.0 | 2 | 3/6 | 2/6 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maceratese sit 14th in Serie D - Girone F (7 points from 7 matches) and Montecchio Gallo sit 12th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Montecchio Gallo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| 14 | Maceratese | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 7 |
A question about Maceratese vs Montecchio Gallo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maceratese vs Montecchio Gallo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Montecchio Gallo the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Maceratese.
- Where and when is Maceratese vs Montecchio Gallo played?
- Maceratese vs Montecchio Gallo is played on October 25, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Helvia Recina, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.