Búzios vs Serra Macaense: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 4Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Búzios the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Serra Macaense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Búzios vs Serra Macaense?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Búzios (1,607) and Serra Macaense (1,587).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Búzios have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Serra Macaense have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cardoso Moreira(away) | 1-2 | Carioca C |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Barra Mansa(away) | 2-0 | Carioca C |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Barra Mansa(home) | 3-0 | Carioca C |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Barcelona RJ(away) | 7-0 | Carioca C |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Cardoso Moreira(home) | 0-2 | Carioca C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | SE Belford Roxo(away) | 0-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Macaé(home) | 2-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Rio de Janeiro(away) | 2-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Goytacaz(home) | 1-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Santa Cruz RJ(away) | 0-0 | Carioca B2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Búzios score 1.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Serra Macaense score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Búzios | 1.9 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Serra Macaense | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Búzios vs Serra Macaense?
- The Footlab model makes Búzios the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Serra Macaense.
- Where and when is Búzios vs Serra Macaense played?
- Búzios vs Serra Macaense is played on September 20, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC), in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.