Friburguense vs Paduano: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 7Kick-off on October 5, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Eduardo Guinle, Nova Friburgo, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Friburguense the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Paduano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Friburguense vs Paduano?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Friburguense (1,543) and Paduano (1,583).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Friburguense have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Paduano have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Nova Cidade(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Paduano(away) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Niteroiense(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | São Cristóvão RJ(away) | 1-3 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Niteroiense(away) | 1-5 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Friburguense(home) | 2-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | São Cristóvão RJ(away) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(away) | 1-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Campo Grande(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Friburguense win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Paduano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2025 | Paduano 2-0 Friburguense | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Paduano 0-1 Friburguense | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2023 | Friburguense 1-0 Paduano | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Paduano vs Friburguense on Nov 5, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Friburguense score 0.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Paduano score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friburguense | 0.5 | 1.0 | 3 | 4/15 | 1/15 |
| Paduano | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Friburguense vs Paduano?
- The Footlab model makes Friburguense the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Paduano.
- Where and when is Friburguense vs Paduano played?
- Friburguense vs Paduano is played on October 5, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Eduardo Guinle, in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.