Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 7Kick-off on October 5, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Antônio Ferreira de Medeiros, Cardoso Moreira, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Santa Cruz RJ the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Serra Macaense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Serra Macaense (1,588) and Santa Cruz RJ (1,652).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serra Macaense have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Santa Cruz RJ have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | SE Belford Roxo(away) | 0-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Macaé(home) | 2-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Rio de Janeiro(away) | 2-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Goytacaz(home) | 1-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Santa Cruz RJ(away) | 0-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | Pérolas Negras(away) | 1-5 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Pérolas Negras(home) | 0-5 | Copa Rio |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Macaé(home) | 2-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Macaé(away) | 0-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Paraty(away) | 1-0 | Carioca B2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Serra Macaense win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Santa Cruz RJ win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2025 | Santa Cruz RJ 0-0 Serra Macaense | Carioca B2 |
Last archived meeting: Santa Cruz RJ vs Serra Macaense on Oct 19, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Serra Macaense score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Cruz RJ score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serra Macaense | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Santa Cruz RJ | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Santa Cruz RJ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Cruz RJ the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Serra Macaense.
- Where and when is Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ played?
- Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ is played on October 5, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Antônio Ferreira de Medeiros, in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.