FSV Mainz 05 II vs FC 08 Homburg: prediction and stats
Regionalliga - SudWestSudwest - 18Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion am Bruchweg, Mainz
The Footlab model makes FC 08 Homburg the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for FSV Mainz 05 II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 II vs FC 08 Homburg?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate FSV Mainz 05 II (1,915) and FC 08 Homburg (2,012).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 II have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; FC 08 Homburg have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kickers Offenbach(away) | 1-3 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FSV Frankfurt(home) | 2-1 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC 08 Homburg(away) | 1-2 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Kreuzlingen(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SV Sandhausen(away) | 3-1 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SGV Freiberg(away) | 0-3 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 II(home) | 2-1 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hoffenheim II(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Reutlingen(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FSV Mainz 05 II win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 FC 08 Homburg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC 08 Homburg 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 II | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Mar 22, 2026 | FC 08 Homburg 0-1 FSV Mainz 05 II | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Sep 20, 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 II 2-2 FC 08 Homburg | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Feb 15, 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 II 0-0 FC 08 Homburg | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 8, 2024 | FC 08 Homburg 4-0 FSV Mainz 05 II | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 11, 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 II 0-0 FC 08 Homburg | Regionalliga - SudWest |
Last archived meeting: FC 08 Homburg vs FSV Mainz 05 II on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FSV Mainz 05 II score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; FC 08 Homburg score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 II | 1.4 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| FC 08 Homburg | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FSV Mainz 05 II sit 13th in Regionalliga - SudWest (3 points from 3 matches) and FC 08 Homburg sit 4th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC 08 Homburg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 13 | FSV Mainz 05 II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 II vs FC 08 Homburg?
- The Footlab model makes FC 08 Homburg the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for FSV Mainz 05 II.
- Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 II vs FC 08 Homburg played?
- FSV Mainz 05 II vs FC 08 Homburg is played on November 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion am Bruchweg, in the Regionalliga - SudWest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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