FC 08 Homburg vs SGV Freiberg: prediction and stats
Regionalliga - SudWestSudwest - 19Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Waldstadion Homburg, Homburg
The Footlab model makes FC 08 Homburg the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for SGV Freiberg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC 08 Homburg vs SGV Freiberg?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate FC 08 Homburg (2,011) and SGV Freiberg (2,029).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC 08 Homburg have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; SGV Freiberg have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SV Sandhausen(away) | 3-1 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SGV Freiberg(away) | 0-3 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 II(home) | 2-1 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hoffenheim II(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Reutlingen(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | VfR Mannheim(away) | 0-0 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC 08 Homburg(home) | 3-0 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kaiserslautern II(away) | 5-0 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Jul 18, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Hoffenheim II(home) | 1-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC 08 Homburg win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 SGV Freiberg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | SGV Freiberg 3-0 FC 08 Homburg | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Apr 11, 2026 | FC 08 Homburg 2-1 SGV Freiberg | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Oct 4, 2025 | SGV Freiberg 1-2 FC 08 Homburg | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Apr 25, 2025 | FC 08 Homburg 1-2 SGV Freiberg | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Oct 26, 2024 | SGV Freiberg 1-0 FC 08 Homburg | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Apr 3, 2024 | FC 08 Homburg 0-3 SGV Freiberg | Regionalliga - SudWest |
Last archived meeting: SGV Freiberg vs FC 08 Homburg on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC 08 Homburg score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; SGV Freiberg score 1.7 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC 08 Homburg | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| SGV Freiberg | 1.7 | 2.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC 08 Homburg sit 4th in Regionalliga - SudWest (6 points from 3 matches) and SGV Freiberg sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SGV Freiberg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | FC 08 Homburg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC 08 Homburg vs SGV Freiberg?
- The Footlab model makes FC 08 Homburg the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for SGV Freiberg.
- Where and when is FC 08 Homburg vs SGV Freiberg played?
- FC 08 Homburg vs SGV Freiberg is played on December 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Waldstadion Homburg, in the Regionalliga - SudWest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 5, 2026SV SandhausenvsBarockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
- Dec 5, 2026VfR AalenvsTSV Steinbach
- Dec 5, 2026FSV FrankfurtvsFSV Mainz 05 II
- Dec 5, 2026Eintracht TriervsVfR Mannheim
- Dec 5, 2026Kickers OffenbachvsSSV Ulm 1846
- Dec 5, 2026Hessen KasselvsFreiburg II
- Dec 5, 2026Kaiserslautern IIvsFC Astoria Walldorf
- Dec 5, 2026Stuttgarter KickersvsEintracht Frankfurt II