Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846 played?

FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846 is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion am Bruchweg, in the Regionalliga - SudWest.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846: prediction and stats

Regionalliga - SudWestSudwest - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion am Bruchweg, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 II

SSV Ulm 1846

The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 II the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for SSV Ulm 1846. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846?

FSV Mainz 05 II starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (1,915 vs 1,775).

FSV Mainz 05 II win55 %

Draw22 %

SSV Ulm 1846 win23 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 II have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; SSV Ulm 1846 have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05 II
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Kickers Offenbach(away)	1-3	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 16, 2026	FSV Frankfurt(home)	2-1	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 8, 2026	FC 08 Homburg(away)	1-2	Regionalliga - SudWest
Jul 22, 2026	Kreuzlingen(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 11, 2026	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt(away)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

SSV Ulm 1846
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.(home)	2-2	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 14, 2026	Kickers Offenbach(home)	0-2	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 7, 2026	Stuttgarter Kickers(away)	2-4	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 1, 2026	SSV Jahn Regensburg(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Stuttgart II(home)	0-4	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FSV Mainz 05 II win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 SSV Ulm 1846 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Nov 26, 2022	SSV Ulm 1846 4-1 FSV Mainz 05 II	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 6, 2022	FSV Mainz 05 II 0-4 SSV Ulm 1846	Regionalliga - SudWest
Mar 18, 2022	FSV Mainz 05 II 0-3 SSV Ulm 1846	Regionalliga - SudWest
Sep 28, 2021	SSV Ulm 1846 0-2 FSV Mainz 05 II	Regionalliga - SudWest
Mar 13, 2021	SSV Ulm 1846 3-1 FSV Mainz 05 II	Regionalliga - SudWest
Sep 30, 2020	FSV Mainz 05 II 1-1 SSV Ulm 1846	Regionalliga - SudWest

Last archived meeting: SSV Ulm 1846 vs FSV Mainz 05 II on Nov 26, 2022

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 II score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; SSV Ulm 1846 score 1.3 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 05 II	1.4	1.4	4	9/15	10/15
SSV Ulm 1846	1.3	2.1	1	10/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FSV Mainz 05 II sit 13th in Regionalliga - SudWest (3 points from 3 matches) and SSV Ulm 1846 sit 17th (1 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
13	FSV Mainz 05 II	3	1	0	2	4	6	3
17	SSV Ulm 1846	3	0	1	2	4	8	1

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846?: The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 II the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for SSV Ulm 1846.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846 played?: FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846 is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion am Bruchweg, in the Regionalliga - SudWest.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.