Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 35Kick-off on December 2, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)David Petriashvili Arena, Tbilisi
The Footlab model makes Dinamo Tbilisi the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Gagra. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Gagra (1,594) and Dinamo Tbilisi (1,680).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gagra have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Dinamo Tbilisi have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rustavi(away) | 0-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spaeri(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(away) | 2-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gareji(away) | 4-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Samtskhe Akhaltsikhe(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rustavi(home) | 0-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Spaeri(away) | 2-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius(away) | 2-7 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Guria(away) | 0-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 23, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Gagra win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Dinamo Tbilisi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Gagra 2-1 Dinamo Tbilisi | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi 0-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Dinamo Tbilisi 2-4 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Dinamo Tbilisi 0-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 16, 2025 | Gagra 1-1 Dinamo Tbilisi | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Gagra 0-4 Dinamo Tbilisi | Erovnuli Liga |
Last archived meeting: Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi on Jun 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gagra score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Dinamo Tbilisi score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gagra | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Dinamo Tbilisi | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gagra sit 8th in Erovnuli Liga (24 points from 22 matches) and Dinamo Tbilisi sit 2nd (34 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 25 | 34 |
| 8 | Gagra | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
- The Footlab model makes Dinamo Tbilisi the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Gagra.
- Where and when is Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi played?
- Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi is played on December 2, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at David Petriashvili Arena, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.