Gagra vs Saburtalo: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)David Petriashvili Arena, Tbilisi
The Footlab model makes Saburtalo the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Gagra. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gagra vs Saburtalo?
Saburtalo starts as the favourite with a 182-point Elo edge (1,776 vs 1,593).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gagra have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Saburtalo have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rustavi(away) | 0-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spaeri(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(away) | 2-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gareji(away) | 4-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Samtskhe Akhaltsikhe(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Jagiellonia(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi(away) | 3-4 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Larne(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Larne(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Gagra win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Saburtalo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Saburtalo 1-0 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Gagra 1-2 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Saburtalo 2-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Gagra 1-3 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 29, 2025 | Saburtalo 3-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Gagra 0-1 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Gagra score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Saburtalo score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gagra | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Saburtalo | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gagra sit 8th in Erovnuli Liga (24 points from 22 matches) and Saburtalo sit 3rd (34 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Saburtalo | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 22 | 34 |
| 8 | Gagra | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gagra vs Saburtalo?
- The Footlab model makes Saburtalo the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Gagra.
- Where and when is Gagra vs Saburtalo played?
- Gagra vs Saburtalo is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at David Petriashvili Arena, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.