Samgurali vs Rustavi: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, Martvili
The Footlab model makes Rustavi the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Samgurali. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Samgurali vs Rustavi?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Samgurali (1,619) and Rustavi (1,691).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Samgurali have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Rustavi have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Spaeri(away) | 4-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(home) | 0-4 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Meshakhte(away) | 2-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Meshakhte(home) | 1-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | WIT Georgia(away) | 2-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gagra(home) | 3-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(away) | 3-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi(home) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Spaeri(home) | 3-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Varketili(away) | 1-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Samgurali win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Rustavi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Rustavi 1-0 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Samgurali 2-1 Rustavi | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 22, 2020 | Samgurali 2-1 Rustavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Mar 2, 2020 | Rustavi 1-1 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Oct 1, 2017 | Rustavi 1-0 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 28, 2017 | Samgurali 2-1 Rustavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Samgurali score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Rustavi score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samgurali | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Rustavi | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Samgurali sit 6th in Erovnuli Liga (31 points from 22 matches) and Rustavi sit 1st (41 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rustavi | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 18 | 41 |
| 6 | Samgurali | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 40 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Samgurali vs Rustavi?
- The Footlab model makes Rustavi the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Samgurali.
- Where and when is Samgurali vs Rustavi played?
- Samgurali vs Rustavi is played on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.