Spaeri vs Gagra: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Spaeri the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Gagra. The most likely score is 1-1. If Spaeri wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spaeri vs Gagra?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Spaeri (1,517) and Gagra (1,571).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Spaeri vs Gagra
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Spaeri
4-2-3-1- 17L. Kokhreidze
- 6T. Askurava
- 5T. Tsalughelashvili
- 8S. Maisuradze
- 24Z. Golubiani
- 21O. Gordeziani
- 7S. Gegiadze
- 14G. Samkharadze
- 22N. Chagunava
- 31G. Bunturi
- 1B. Putkaradze
Gagra
4-4-2- 30G. Goshteliani
- 11S. Zoidze
- 25Wanderson
- 33L. Gurchiani
- 8I. Skrypnyk
- 6M. Tsintsadze
- 40Claudinei
- 14Z. Tchavtchanidze
- 2Augusto
- 7P. Borges
- 1O. Vorobey
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:33 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spaeri have 1 win, 5 draws and 9 defeats; Gagra have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi(home) | 3-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Dila(home) | 1-4 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Saburtalo(away) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Rustavi(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Meshakhte(away) | 2-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Samgurali(away) | 0-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Meshakhte(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(away) | 0-4 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Dila(away) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Spaeri wins, 2 draws, 1 Gagra win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Gagra 1-1 Spaeri | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 11, 2026 | Spaeri 3-0 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Gagra 0-3 Spaeri | Erovnuli Liga |
| Nov 5, 2024 | Spaeri 2-2 Gagra | David Kipiani Cup |
| Dec 12, 2022 | Spaeri 3-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Dec 8, 2022 | Gagra 2-0 Spaeri | Erovnuli Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Spaeri score 1.4 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Gagra score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spaeri | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Gagra | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spaeri sit 9th in Erovnuli Liga (26 points from 28 matches) and Gagra sit 8th (29 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gagra | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 40 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 28 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 37 | 46 | 26 |
A question about Spaeri vs Gagra?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spaeri vs Gagra?
- The Footlab AI model makes Spaeri the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Gagra.
- Where and when is Spaeri vs Gagra played?
- Spaeri vs Gagra is played on October 23, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.