Gardabani vs Guria: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 21Kick-off on September 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ameris Stadioni, Khelovnursapariani Moedani, Tbilisi
The Footlab model makes Guria the favourite at 83%, against 11% for a draw and 5% for Gardabani. The most likely score is 0-3.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gardabani vs Guria?
Guria starts as the favourite with a 255-point Elo edge (1,375 vs 1,120).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gardabani have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Guria have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Didube 2014(home) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Irao(away) | 0-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | WIT Georgia(home) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Iberia 2010(home) | 1-5 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Varketili(home) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Saburtalo II(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Merani Tbilisi(away) | 5-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti(home) | 1-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(home) | 1-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Gardabani win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Guria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2026 | Guria 0-0 Gardabani | Liga 3 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Gardabani 3-0 Guria | Liga 3 |
| Apr 18, 2024 | Guria 0-3 Gardabani | Liga 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Gardabani score 0.9 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Guria score 2.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardabani | 0.9 | 2.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Guria | 2.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gardabani sit 13th in Liga 3 (13 points from 18 matches) and Guria sit 2nd (39 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Guria | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 11 | 39 |
| 13 | Gardabani | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 40 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gardabani vs Guria?
- The Footlab model makes Guria the favourite at 83%, against 11% for a draw and 5% for Gardabani.
- Where and when is Gardabani vs Guria played?
- Gardabani vs Guria is played on September 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ameris Stadioni, Khelovnursapariani Moedani, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.