Geita Gold vs Mbeya City: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 15, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Nyankumbu Stadium, Geita
The Footlab model makes Geita Gold the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Mbeya City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Geita Gold vs Mbeya City?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Geita Gold (1,473) and Mbeya City (1,506).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Geita Gold have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Mbeya City have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(home) | 6-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Mbeya City(away) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 28, 2024 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 25, 2024 | Fountain Gate(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Geita Gold(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Geita Gold win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Mbeya City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Mbeya City 0-1 Geita Gold | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 13, 2023 | Geita Gold 0-1 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 20, 2022 | Mbeya City 0-0 Geita Gold | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Apr 2, 2022 | Mbeya City 0-1 Geita Gold | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 23, 2021 | Geita Gold 1-1 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Mbeya City vs Geita Gold on Aug 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Geita Gold score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Mbeya City score 0.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geita Gold | 0.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Mbeya City | 0.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Geita Gold sit 5th in Ligi kuu Bara (6 points from 3 matches) and Mbeya City sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Geita Gold | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Mbeya City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Geita Gold vs Mbeya City?
- The Footlab model makes Geita Gold the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Mbeya City.
- Where and when is Geita Gold vs Mbeya City played?
- Geita Gold vs Mbeya City is played on February 15, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Nyankumbu Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.