Mbeya City vs Fountain Gate: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 26, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Sokoine Stadium, Mbeya
The Footlab model makes Mbeya City the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Fountain Gate. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mbeya City vs Fountain Gate?
A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Mbeya City (1,506) and Fountain Gate (1,483).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mbeya City have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Fountain Gate have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Geita Gold(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 0-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 4-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Mbeya City win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Fountain Gate win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | Mbeya City 0-1 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Fountain Gate 0-1 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 22, 2022 | Mbeya City 1-1 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 21, 2022 | Fountain Gate 2-1 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Mbeya City vs Fountain Gate on Mar 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mbeya City score 0.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fountain Gate score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mbeya City | 0.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Fountain Gate | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mbeya City sit 5th in Ligi kuu Bara (6 points from 3 matches) and Fountain Gate sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mbeya City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Fountain Gate | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mbeya City vs Fountain Gate?
- The Footlab model makes Mbeya City the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Fountain Gate.
- Where and when is Mbeya City vs Fountain Gate played?
- Mbeya City vs Fountain Gate is played on February 26, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Sokoine Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.