Mashujaa vs Fountain Gate: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Lake Tanganyika Stadium, Kigoma
The Footlab model makes Mashujaa the favourite at 48%, against 31% for a draw and 21% for Fountain Gate. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mashujaa vs Fountain Gate?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Mashujaa (1,525) and Fountain Gate (1,483).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mashujaa have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Fountain Gate have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mbeya City(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fountain Gate(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Coastal Union(away) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Tanzania Prisons(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | KMC(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 0-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 4-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mashujaa win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Fountain Gate win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fountain Gate 1-0 Mashujaa | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Fountain Gate 0-1 Mashujaa | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Mashujaa 1-1 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Mashujaa 3-0 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 28, 2024 | Fountain Gate 2-2 Mashujaa | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Fountain Gate 0-0 Mashujaa | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Fountain Gate vs Mashujaa on Aug 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mashujaa score 0.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Fountain Gate score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mashujaa | 0.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
| Fountain Gate | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mashujaa sit 9th in Ligi kuu Bara (3 points from 3 matches) and Fountain Gate sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mashujaa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Fountain Gate | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mashujaa vs Fountain Gate?
- The Footlab model makes Mashujaa the favourite at 48%, against 31% for a draw and 21% for Fountain Gate.
- Where and when is Mashujaa vs Fountain Gate played?
- Mashujaa vs Fountain Gate is played on February 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Lake Tanganyika Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.