Genk vs KV Mechelen: prediction and stats
Jupiler Pro LeagueRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 22, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Cegeka Arena, Genk
The Footlab model makes Genk the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for KV Mechelen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Genk vs KV Mechelen?
Genk starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (2,030 vs 1,887).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Genk have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; KV Mechelen have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Antwerp(away) | 4-4 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(home) | 3-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Zulte Waregem(away) | 1-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Twente(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC OSS(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 0-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Standard Liege(home) | 3-3 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Gent(away) | 0-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dunkerque(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Genk win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 KV Mechelen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | KV Mechelen 2-3 Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Genk 0-1 KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| Jan 18, 2025 | KV Mechelen 1-2 Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Genk 2-1 KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| Feb 11, 2024 | KV Mechelen 1-1 Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Genk 4-0 KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
How many goals should we expect?
Genk score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; KV Mechelen score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| KV Mechelen | 1.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Genk sit 9th in Jupiler Pro League (4 points from 3 matches) and KV Mechelen sit 14th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Genk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 4 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Genk vs KV Mechelen?
- The Footlab model makes Genk the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for KV Mechelen.
- Where and when is Genk vs KV Mechelen played?
- Genk vs KV Mechelen is played on May 22, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Cegeka Arena, in the Jupiler Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.