Lecce vs Genoa: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce
The Footlab AI model makes Genoa the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Lecce. The most likely score is 1-1. If Genoa wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Lecce (1,898) and Genoa (1,952).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lecce vs Genoa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lecce
4-3-3- 50S. Pierotti
- 22Paco Esteban
- 7A. Ahmed Fatah
- 29L. Coulibaly
- 20I. Ilić
- 14Y. Maleh
- 17Danilo Veiga
- 25A. Gallo
- 5J. Siebert
- 44Tiago Gabriel
- 30W. Falcone
Genoa
3-4-2-1- 18M. Osmajić
- 32M. Frendrup
- 3K. Ehizibue
- 77M. Ellertsson
- 10Junior Messias
- 92S. El Shaarawy
- 25H. Traorè
- 5L. Østigård
- 34S. Otoa
- 22J. Vásquez
- 1J. Bijlow
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 05:19 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lecce have 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats; Genoa have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Monza(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Cagliari(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 0-4 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Rapid(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Parma(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sudtirol(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lecce wins, 2 draws, 2 Genoa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Lecce 1-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Genoa 0-0 Lecce | Serie A |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Genoa 2-1 Lecce | Serie A |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Lecce 0-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Genoa 2-1 Lecce | Serie A |
| Sep 22, 2023 | Lecce 1-0 Genoa | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Lecce score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Genoa score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Genoa | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lecce sit 13th in Serie A (6 points from 6 matches) and Genoa sit 17th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 6 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 4 |
A question about Lecce vs Genoa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lecce vs Genoa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Genoa the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Lecce.
- Where and when is Lecce vs Genoa played?
- Lecce vs Genoa is played on November 1, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.