Gernika vs Real Madrid III: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 33Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Urbieta, Gernika-Lumo
The Footlab AI model makes Gernika the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Real Madrid III. The most likely score is 1-1. If Gernika wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,709 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gernika vs Real Madrid III?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Gernika (1,860) and Real Madrid III (1,831).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Gernika vs Real Madrid III
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Gernika
Not enough data to predict the Gernika lineup.
Real Madrid III
Not enough data to predict the Real Madrid III lineup.
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 07:51 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gernika have 3 wins, 9 draws and 3 defeats; Real Madrid III have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Amorebieta(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés II(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sestao River(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Real Ávila(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Conquense(home) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | RSD Alcalá(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Tordesillas(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Guadalajara(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
How many goals should we expect?
Gernika score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid III score 0.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gernika | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Real Madrid III | 0.7 | 0.8 | 8 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gernika | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 11 |
A question about Gernika vs Real Madrid III?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gernika vs Real Madrid III?
- The Footlab AI model makes Gernika the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Real Madrid III.
- Where and when is Gernika vs Real Madrid III played?
- Gernika vs Real Madrid III is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Urbieta, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.