Gharraf vs Al-Karma: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Al-Karma the favourite at 45%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Gharraf. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gharraf vs Al-Karma?
Al-Karma starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (1,615 vs 1,480).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gharraf have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Al-Karma have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newroz(home) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Duhok(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Naft Maysan(home) | 0-2 | Iraqi League |
| May 27, 2026 | Baghdad(away) | 3-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 19, 2026 | Al Kahrabaa(away) | 2-2 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Shorta(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mosul(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 27, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| May 19, 2026 | Al Talaba(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 14, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Gharraf win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Al-Karma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | Al-Karma 3-0 Gharraf | Iraqi League |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Gharraf 0-1 Al-Karma | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Gharraf score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Al-Karma score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gharraf | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Al-Karma | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gharraf sit 6th in Iraqi League (4 points from 2 matches) and Al-Karma sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Al-Karma | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Gharraf | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gharraf vs Al-Karma?
- The Footlab model makes Al-Karma the favourite at 45%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Gharraf.
- Where and when is Gharraf vs Al-Karma played?
- Gharraf vs Al-Karma is played on December 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.