Newroz vs Erbil: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 43%, against 31% for a draw and 26% for Newroz. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newroz vs Erbil?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Newroz (1,579) and Erbil (1,675).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newroz vs Erbil
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newroz
Not enough data to predict the Newroz lineup.
Erbil
Not enough data to predict the Erbil lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 11:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newroz have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Erbil have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Zakho(away) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ghaz Al Shamal(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al-Jolan SC(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Mosul(home) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Karbala(away) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al-Karma(home) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Al Shorta(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Newroz wins, 0 draws, 0 Erbil wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Erbil 0-1 Newroz | Iraqi League |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Erbil 0-1 Newroz | Iraqi League |
| Feb 10, 2025 | Newroz 2-0 Erbil | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Newroz score 1.4 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Erbil score 1.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newroz | 1.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Erbil | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newroz sit 2nd in Iraqi League (18 points from 9 matches) and Erbil sit 4th (18 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Newroz | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 18 |
| 4 | Erbil | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 18 |
A question about Newroz vs Erbil?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newroz vs Erbil?
- The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 43%, against 31% for a draw and 26% for Newroz.
- Where and when is Newroz vs Erbil played?
- Newroz vs Erbil is played on December 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.