Ghaz Al Shamal vs Diyala: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Ghaz Al Shamal the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Diyala. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ghaz Al Shamal vs Diyala?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Ghaz Al Shamal (1,460) and Diyala (1,468).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 2 matches in all competitions, Ghaz Al Shamal have 0 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; Diyala have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Al Kahrabaa(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zakho(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Mosul(away) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Al Talaba(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Duhok(home) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| May 27, 2026 | Al-Karma(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 19, 2026 | Baghdad(home) | 1-4 | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Ghaz Al Shamal score 0.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 2; Diyala score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghaz Al Shamal | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1/2 | 0/2 |
| Diyala | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 2 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ghaz Al Shamal sit 18th in Iraqi League (1 points from 2 matches) and Diyala sit 8th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Diyala | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 18 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ghaz Al Shamal vs Diyala?
- The Footlab model makes Ghaz Al Shamal the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Diyala.
- Where and when is Ghaz Al Shamal vs Diyala played?
- Ghaz Al Shamal vs Diyala is played on December 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.