Gimnasia M. vs Boca Juniors: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 8Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie, Mendoza, Provincia de Mendoza
The Footlab model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Gimnasia M.. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gimnasia M. vs Boca Juniors?
Boca Juniors starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,981 vs 1,862).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gimnasia M. have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Boca Juniors have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P.(away) | 3-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(home) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Union Santa Fe(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2026 | San Lorenzo(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Deportivo Recoleta(away) | 4-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Platense(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Deportivo Recoleta(home) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(home) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Gimnasia M. win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Boca Juniors win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Boca Juniors 1-1 Gimnasia M. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: Boca Juniors vs Gimnasia M. on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gimnasia M. score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Boca Juniors score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia M. | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Boca Juniors | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gimnasia M. sit 11th in Liga Profesional Argentina (19 points from 16 matches) and Boca Juniors sit 2nd (30 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 30 |
| 2 | Gimnasia M. | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 19 |
| 12 | Boca Juniors | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gimnasia M. vs Boca Juniors?
- The Footlab model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Gimnasia M..
- Where and when is Gimnasia M. vs Boca Juniors played?
- Gimnasia M. vs Boca Juniors is played on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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