Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Gernika: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 10Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Malecón, Torrelavega
The Footlab model makes Gimnástica Torrelavega the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Gernika. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Gernika?
Gimnástica Torrelavega starts as the favourite with a 137-point Elo edge (1,974 vs 1,837).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gimnástica Torrelavega have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Gernika have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bezana(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sestao River(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Basconia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Barquereño(away) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés II(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Basconia(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Tudelano(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Amorebieta(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Utebo(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Gimnástica Torrelavega score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Gernika score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnástica Torrelavega | 2.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Gernika | 1.0 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Gernika?
- The Footlab model makes Gimnástica Torrelavega the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Gernika.
- Where and when is Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Gernika played?
- Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Gernika is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Malecón, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.