Glenavon FC vs Rathfriland: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 5Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Mourneview Park, Lurgan
The Footlab model makes Glenavon FC the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Rathfriland. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Glenavon FC vs Rathfriland?
Glenavon FC starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,418 vs 1,307).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Glenavon FC have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Rathfriland have 6, 0 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Armagh City(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Newry City AFC(away) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ards(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ballymena United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newington Youth(away) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newry City AFC(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Annagh United(away) | 2-4 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Loughgall(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| May 1, 2026 | Knockbreda(away) | 4-0 | Premier Intermediate League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Glenavon FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Rathfriland win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2022 | Rathfriland 0-2 Glenavon FC | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Rathfriland vs Glenavon FC on Jul 26, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Glenavon FC score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Rathfriland score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenavon FC | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Rathfriland | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Glenavon FC sit 4th in Championship (7 points from 4 matches) and Rathfriland sit 16th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Glenavon FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 7 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Glenavon FC vs Rathfriland?
- The Footlab model makes Glenavon FC the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Rathfriland.
- Where and when is Glenavon FC vs Rathfriland played?
- Glenavon FC vs Rathfriland is played on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Mourneview Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.