Institute vs Newry City AFC: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 5Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Londonderry
The Footlab model makes Institute the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Newry City AFC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Institute vs Newry City AFC?
Institute starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,357 vs 1,244).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Institute have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Newry City AFC have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Queen's University(away) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Loughgall(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ballinamallard United(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Limavady United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(home) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rathfriland(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Glenavon FC(home) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ballinamallard United(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bangor(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Institute win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Newry City AFC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2025 | Newry City AFC 0-3 Institute | Championship |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Institute 1-1 Newry City AFC | Championship |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Newry City AFC 0-2 Institute | Championship |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Institute 2-0 Newry City AFC | Championship |
| Jan 1, 2022 | Institute 0-0 Newry City AFC | Championship |
| Oct 16, 2021 | Institute 1-2 Newry City AFC | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Newry City AFC vs Institute on Apr 26, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Institute score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Newry City AFC score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institute | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Newry City AFC | 1.1 | 1.2 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Institute sit 12th in Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Newry City AFC sit 10th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Institute | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 47 | 43 | 46 |
| 7 | Institute | 38 | 17 | 8 | 13 | 59 | 46 | 59 |
| 10 | Newry City AFC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | Institute | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Institute vs Newry City AFC?
- The Footlab model makes Institute the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Newry City AFC.
- Where and when is Institute vs Newry City AFC played?
- Institute vs Newry City AFC is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.