Grafičar vs Naftagas: prediction and stats
Prva LigaRegular Season - 20Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Grafičara, Beograd
The Footlab model makes Grafičar the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Naftagas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Grafičar vs Naftagas?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Grafičar (1,561) and Naftagas (1,607).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Grafičar have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Naftagas have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Naftagas(away) | 1-2 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Loznica(home) | 2-2 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FK Vozdovac(away) | 1-0 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Semendrija 1924(home) | 1-2 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Napredak(away) | 0-1 | Prva Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Grafičar(home) | 2-1 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Borac Cacak(away) | 1-2 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dubočica(home) | 2-3 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | OFK Vršac(away) | 0-1 | Prva Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Loznica(away) | 0-0 | Prva Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Grafičar win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Naftagas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Naftagas 2-1 Grafičar | Prva Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Grafičar score 1.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Naftagas score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grafičar | 1.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Naftagas | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Grafičar sit 11th in Prva Liga (4 points from 5 matches) and Naftagas sit 12th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grafičar | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | Naftagas | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Grafičar vs Naftagas?
- The Footlab model makes Grafičar the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Naftagas.
- Where and when is Grafičar vs Naftagas played?
- Grafičar vs Naftagas is played on November 28, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Grafičara, in the Prva Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.