Grebbestad vs Vänersborgs FK: prediction and stats
Division 2 - Norra GötalandNorra Götaland - 26Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Siljevi 1, Grebbestad
The Footlab model makes Grebbestad the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Vänersborgs FK. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Grebbestad vs Vänersborgs FK?
Grebbestad starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,465 vs 1,360).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Grebbestad have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Vänersborgs FK have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stenungsund(home) | 1-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ahlafors(away) | 1-3 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 8, 2026 | IFK Skövde(home) | 1-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jul 31, 2026 | IF Karlstad II(away) | 2-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Kumla(home) | 2-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | IFK Skövde(home) | 0-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Vänersborgs IF(away) | 2-0 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Skara(away) | 0-4 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Herrestads(home) | 2-4 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Motala(away) | 1-0 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Grebbestad win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Vänersborgs FK win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | Vänersborgs FK 2-3 Grebbestad | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Grebbestad 4-2 Vänersborgs FK | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Vänersborgs FK 1-1 Grebbestad | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Sep 6, 2024 | Vänersborgs FK 3-1 Grebbestad | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| May 11, 2024 | Grebbestad 3-0 Vänersborgs FK | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Sep 29, 2023 | Vänersborgs FK 5-4 Grebbestad | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
Last archived meeting: Vänersborgs FK vs Grebbestad on May 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Grebbestad score 2.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Vänersborgs FK score 1.3 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grebbestad | 2.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Vänersborgs FK | 1.3 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Grebbestad sit 5th in Division 2 - Norra Götaland (22 points from 13 matches) and Vänersborgs FK sit 10th (13 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Grebbestad | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 19 | 22 |
| 5 | Grebbestad | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 26 | 30 |
| 10 | Vänersborgs FK | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 24 | 13 |
| 10 | Vänersborgs FK | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 33 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Grebbestad vs Vänersborgs FK?
- The Footlab model makes Grebbestad the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Vänersborgs FK.
- Where and when is Grebbestad vs Vänersborgs FK played?
- Grebbestad vs Vänersborgs FK is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Siljevi 1, in the Division 2 - Norra Götaland.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.