Northampton vs Fleetwood Town: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 1, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Sixfields Stadium, Northampton, East Midlands
The Footlab model makes Fleetwood Town the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Northampton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Northampton vs Fleetwood Town?
Fleetwood Town starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,768 vs 1,662).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Northampton have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Fleetwood Town have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Brighton U21(home) | 0-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Shrewsbury(home) | 4-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gillingham(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chesterfield(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chesterfield(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hartlepool(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Northampton win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Fleetwood Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | Fleetwood Town 2-0 Northampton | League One |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Northampton 3-0 Fleetwood Town | League One |
| Jan 26, 2021 | Fleetwood Town 0-0 Northampton | League One |
| Dec 1, 2020 | Northampton 1-0 Fleetwood Town | League One |
| Mar 24, 2018 | Fleetwood Town 2-0 Northampton | League One |
| Aug 12, 2017 | Northampton 0-1 Fleetwood Town | League One |
Last archived meeting: Fleetwood Town vs Northampton on Apr 13, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Northampton score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Fleetwood Town score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Fleetwood Town | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Northampton sit 18th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Fleetwood Town sit 9th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 18 | Northampton | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Northampton vs Fleetwood Town?
- The Footlab model makes Fleetwood Town the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Northampton.
- Where and when is Northampton vs Fleetwood Town played?
- Northampton vs Fleetwood Town is played on December 1, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Sixfields Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.