Grimsby vs Notts County: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup North - 6Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Blundell Park, Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire
The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Notts County. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Grimsby vs Notts County?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Grimsby (1,834) and Notts County (1,826).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Grimsby have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Notts County have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Grimsby Borough(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Luton(away) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leicester(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Grimsby win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Notts County win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Notts County 0-1 Grimsby | League Two |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Grimsby 0-2 Notts County | League Two |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Grimsby 0-2 Notts County | League Two |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Notts County 4-1 Grimsby | League Two |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Grimsby 5-5 Notts County | League Two |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Notts County 3-2 Grimsby | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Notts County vs Grimsby on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Grimsby score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Notts County score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Notts County | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Grimsby sit 3rd in EFL Trophy (3 points from 3 matches) and Notts County sit 4th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Grimsby | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 4 | Notts County | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Grimsby vs Notts County?
- The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Notts County.
- Where and when is Grimsby vs Notts County played?
- Grimsby vs Notts County is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Blundell Park, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.