Burton Albion vs Grimsby: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup North - 6Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Pirelli Stadium, Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Burton Albion the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Grimsby. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burton Albion vs Grimsby?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Burton Albion (1,794) and Grimsby (1,834).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burton Albion have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Grimsby have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stevenage(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackburn(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Grimsby Borough(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Burton Albion win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Grimsby win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2023 | Grimsby 1-0 Burton Albion | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Grimsby vs Burton Albion on Jan 7, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Burton Albion score 0.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Grimsby score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton Albion | 0.8 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Grimsby | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burton Albion sit 3rd in EFL Trophy (3 points from 3 matches) and Grimsby sit 3rd (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Burton Albion | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | Grimsby | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burton Albion vs Grimsby?
- The Footlab model makes Burton Albion the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Grimsby.
- Where and when is Burton Albion vs Grimsby played?
- Burton Albion vs Grimsby is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Pirelli Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.