Rio Ave vs Moreirense: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde
The Footlab AI model makes Rio Ave the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Moreirense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rio Ave wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,619 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rio Ave vs Moreirense?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Rio Ave (2,026) and Moreirense (2,036).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rio Ave vs Moreirense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1- 11J. Blesa
- 7Diogo Bezerra
- 5A. Ntoi
- 79M. Patricio
- 54G. Liavas
- 80S. Clemmensen
- 20João Tomé
- 39Gustavo Mancha
- 17M. Vrousai
- 23F. Petrasso
- 32Vitor Hugo
Moreirense
4-2-3-1- 79L. Vonić
- 23N. John
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 65Guilherme Liberato
- 10Kiko Bondoso
- 19Tiago Andrade
- 66Gilberto Batista
- 27Kiko
- 26Maracás
- 76Dinis Pinto
- 13André Ferreira
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 07:30 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rio Ave have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Moreirense have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Louletano(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | AVS(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 9, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rio Ave wins, 1 draw, 3 Moreirense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2026 | Rio Ave 1-2 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Moreirense 3-1 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Moreirense 0-2 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Rio Ave 3-2 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 13, 2024 | Rio Ave 1-2 Moreirense | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Moreirense 0-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rio Ave vs Moreirense on Feb 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rio Ave score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Moreirense score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Moreirense | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rio Ave sit 14th in Primeira Liga (7 points from 8 matches) and Moreirense sit 12th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 8 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 7 |
A question about Rio Ave vs Moreirense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rio Ave vs Moreirense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rio Ave the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Moreirense.
- Where and when is Rio Ave vs Moreirense played?
- Rio Ave vs Moreirense is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.