Guiseley AFC vs Leek Town: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Nethermoor Park, Guiseley, West Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Guiseley AFC the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Leek Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guiseley AFC vs Leek Town?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Guiseley AFC (1,768) and Leek Town (1,777).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guiseley AFC have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Leek Town have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Curzon Ashton(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Bury(home) | 3-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Workington(away) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Whitby Town(away) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Warrington Town(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bamber Bridge(home) | 4-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AFC Emley(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Whitby Town(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Guiseley AFC win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Leek Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | Guiseley AFC 1-0 Leek Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Leek Town 4-0 Guiseley AFC | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Leek Town 2-2 Guiseley AFC | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Dec 10, 2024 | Guiseley AFC 1-1 Leek Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Guiseley AFC vs Leek Town on Dec 6, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Guiseley AFC score 1.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Leek Town score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guiseley AFC | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2 | 13/15 | 10/15 |
| Leek Town | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guiseley AFC sit 6th in Non League Premier - Northern (10 points from 5 matches) and Leek Town sit 15th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Guiseley AFC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 15 | Leek Town | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guiseley AFC vs Leek Town?
- The Footlab model makes Guiseley AFC the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Leek Town.
- Where and when is Guiseley AFC vs Leek Town played?
- Guiseley AFC vs Leek Town is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Nethermoor Park, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.