H&W Welders vs Rathfriland: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Blanchflower Stadium, Belfast
The Footlab model makes H&W Welders the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Rathfriland. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win H&W Welders vs Rathfriland?
H&W Welders starts as the favourite with a 128-point Elo edge (1,435 vs 1,306).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, H&W Welders have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Rathfriland have 6, 0 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Armagh City(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Queen's University(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(home) | 3-0 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Dungannon Swifts(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newington Youth(away) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newry City AFC(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Annagh United(away) | 2-4 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Loughgall(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| May 1, 2026 | Knockbreda(away) | 4-0 | Premier Intermediate League |
How many goals should we expect?
H&W Welders score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Rathfriland score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H&W Welders | 1.6 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Rathfriland | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
H&W Welders sit 2nd in Championship (9 points from 4 matches) and Rathfriland sit 16th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | H&W Welders | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | H&W Welders | 38 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 87 | 48 | 66 |
| 3 | H&W Welders | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 77 | 41 | 59 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for H&W Welders vs Rathfriland?
- The Footlab model makes H&W Welders the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Rathfriland.
- Where and when is H&W Welders vs Rathfriland played?
- H&W Welders vs Rathfriland is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Blanchflower Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.