Institute vs Newington Youth: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Londonderry
The Footlab model makes Newington Youth the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Institute. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Institute vs Newington Youth?
Newington Youth starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,472 vs 1,357).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Institute have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Newington Youth have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Queen's University(away) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Loughgall(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ballinamallard United(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Limavady United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rathfriland(home) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Queen's University(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Loughgall(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Annagh United(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Crusaders FC(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Institute win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Newington Youth win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2025 | Institute 3-3 Newington Youth | Championship |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Newington Youth 4-1 Institute | Championship |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Institute 0-1 Newington Youth | Championship |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Institute 3-3 Newington Youth | Championship |
| Dec 30, 2024 | Newington Youth 2-0 Institute | Championship |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Newington Youth 0-1 Institute | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Institute vs Newington Youth on Dec 30, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Institute score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Newington Youth score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institute | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Newington Youth | 2.1 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Institute sit 12th in Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Newington Youth sit 1st (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newington Youth | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Newington Youth | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 77 | 62 | 60 |
| 4 | Newington Youth | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 69 | 52 | 51 |
| 7 | Institute | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 47 | 43 | 46 |
| 7 | Institute | 38 | 17 | 8 | 13 | 59 | 46 | 59 |
| 12 | Institute | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Institute vs Newington Youth?
- The Footlab model makes Newington Youth the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Institute.
- Where and when is Institute vs Newington Youth played?
- Institute vs Newington Youth is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.