Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya: prediction and stats
Liga AlefNorth - 3Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)HaShalom Stadium, Umm al-Fahm
The Footlab model makes Ironi Baka El Garbiya the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (1,623) and Ironi Baka El Garbiya (1,720).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Ironi Baka El Garbiya have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | Maccabi K. Ata Bialik(away) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Hapoel Bnei Musmus(home) | 0-2 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Hapoel Beit Shean(home) | 2-3 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel(home) | 1-0 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Tzeirey Tamra(away) | 4-2 | Liga Alef |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Ironi Nesher(away) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth(home) | 0-3 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm(away) | 0-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(home) | 4-1 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed(away) | 1-2 | Liga Alef |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Ironi Baka El Garbiya win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2-2 Ironi Baka El Garbiya | Liga Alef |
| Apr 12, 2019 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3-0 Ironi Baka El Garbiya | Liga Alef |
| Dec 17, 2018 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya 1-1 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Mar 5, 2018 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya 0-2 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Oct 20, 2017 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0-0 Ironi Baka El Garbiya | Liga Alef |
Last archived meeting: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya on Dec 20, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ironi Baka El Garbiya score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | 1.4 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm sit 16th in Liga Alef (11 points from 22 matches) and Ironi Baka El Garbiya sit 9th (31 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 30 | 31 |
| 16 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 37 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya?
- The Footlab model makes Ironi Baka El Garbiya the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm.
- Where and when is Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya played?
- Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya is played on September 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at HaShalom Stadium, in the Liga Alef.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Ironi NeshervsTzeirei Umm al-Fahm
- Sep 19, 2026Hapoel Bnei MusmusvsBeitar Nahariya
- Sep 19, 2026Hapoel Ihud Bnei JattvsTira
- Sep 19, 2026Hapoel Tirat HaCarmelvsTzeirey Tamra
- Sep 19, 2026Maccabi Neve Sha'ananvsHapoel Ironi Karmiel
- Sep 19, 2026Maccabi Nujeidat AhmedvsHapoel Migdal HaEmek
- Sep 19, 2026Hapoel Beit SheanvsHapoel Nazareth Illit
- Sep 19, 2026Hapoel Ironi ArrabavsMaccabi K. Ata Bialik