Ironi Nesher vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm: prediction and stats
Liga AlefNorth - 3Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Nesher Municipal Stadium, Nesher
The Footlab model makes Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Ironi Nesher. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ironi Nesher vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Ironi Nesher (1,612) and Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm (1,657).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ironi Nesher have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya(home) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek(away) | 0-3 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Hapoel Ironi Arraba(home) | 3-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Tira(away) | 2-0 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel(home) | 1-1 | Liga Alef |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(home) | 1-2 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed(away) | 2-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya(home) | 1-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek(away) | 1-3 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Hapoel Ironi Arraba(home) | 3-0 | Liga Alef |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Ironi Nesher win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | Ironi Nesher 1-1 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 1-0 Ironi Nesher | Liga Alef |
| Nov 28, 2024 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 1-0 Ironi Nesher | State Cup |
| Mar 21, 2024 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 0-2 Ironi Nesher | Liga Alef |
| Dec 29, 2023 | Ironi Nesher 0-3 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
Last archived meeting: Ironi Nesher vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm on Dec 5, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Ironi Nesher score 1.2 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ironi Nesher | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ironi Nesher sit 11th in Liga Alef (29 points from 22 matches) and Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm sit 10th (30 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 25 | 30 |
| 11 | Ironi Nesher | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 28 | 37 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ironi Nesher vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm?
- The Footlab model makes Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Ironi Nesher.
- Where and when is Ironi Nesher vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm played?
- Ironi Nesher vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm is played on September 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Nesher Municipal Stadium, in the Liga Alef.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Hapoel Umm al-FahmvsIroni Baka El Garbiya
- Sep 19, 2026Hapoel Bnei MusmusvsBeitar Nahariya
- Sep 19, 2026Hapoel Ihud Bnei JattvsTira
- Sep 19, 2026Hapoel Tirat HaCarmelvsTzeirey Tamra
- Sep 19, 2026Maccabi Neve Sha'ananvsHapoel Ironi Karmiel
- Sep 19, 2026Maccabi Nujeidat AhmedvsHapoel Migdal HaEmek
- Sep 19, 2026Hapoel Beit SheanvsHapoel Nazareth Illit
- Sep 19, 2026Hapoel Ironi ArrabavsMaccabi K. Ata Bialik