Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 25, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Trinity Health Stadium, Hartford
The Footlab model makes Louisville City the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Hartford Athletic. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Hartford Athletic (1,786) and Louisville City (1,855).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hartford Athletic have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Louisville City have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Miami FC(home) | 2-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Charlotte Independence(away) | 4-2 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Indy Eleven(away) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Loudoun United(away) | 0-2 | USL Championship |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Indy Eleven(away) | 1-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 3-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(away) | 0-0 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | San Antonio(home) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(away) | 4-5 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Hartford Athletic win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Louisville City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 2026 | Louisville City 1-0 Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Louisville City 1-0 Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| May 17, 2025 | Hartford Athletic 1-1 Louisville City | USL Championship |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Hartford Athletic 2-1 Louisville City | USL Championship |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Louisville City 6-0 Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Louisville City 1-1 Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Louisville City vs Hartford Athletic on Jul 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hartford Athletic score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Louisville City score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartford Athletic | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Louisville City | 1.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hartford Athletic sit 7th in USL Championship (17 points from 11 matches) and Louisville City sit 3rd (21 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Louisville City | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 21 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 36 | 31 |
| 7 | Hartford Athletic | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 17 |
| 8 | Hartford Athletic | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City?
- The Footlab model makes Louisville City the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Hartford Athletic.
- Where and when is Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City played?
- Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City is played on September 25, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Trinity Health Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots