Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Trinity Health Stadium, Hartford
The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Hartford Athletic. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Hartford Athletic (1,786) and Tampa Bay Rowdies (1,858).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hartford Athletic have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Tampa Bay Rowdies have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Miami FC(home) | 2-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Charlotte Independence(away) | 4-2 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Indy Eleven(away) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Loudoun United(away) | 0-2 | USL Championship |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Detroit City(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rhode Island(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 0-0 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 3-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 5-4 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Hartford Athletic win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Tampa Bay Rowdies win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-1 Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-2 Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Hartford Athletic 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-2 Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| Jun 21, 2024 | Hartford Athletic 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| Sep 27, 2023 | Hartford Athletic 0-2 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Hartford Athletic on Jun 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hartford Athletic score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tampa Bay Rowdies score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartford Athletic | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hartford Athletic sit 7th in USL Championship (17 points from 11 matches) and Tampa Bay Rowdies sit 1st (28 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 28 |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 20 | 44 |
| 7 | Hartford Athletic | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 17 |
| 8 | Hartford Athletic | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
- The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Hartford Athletic.
- Where and when is Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies played?
- Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies is played on September 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Trinity Health Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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