Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 19, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Al Lang Stadium, St. Petersburg, Florida
The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Birmingham Legion. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion?
Tampa Bay Rowdies starts as the favourite with a 191-point Elo edge (1,858 vs 1,667).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tampa Bay Rowdies have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Birmingham Legion have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Detroit City(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rhode Island(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 0-0 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 3-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 5-4 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting JAX(home) | 2-3 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Colorado Springs(away) | 2-3 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Rhode Island(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Louisville City(away) | 1-2 | USL Championship |
| Jul 12, 2026 | FC Tulsa(home) | 3-1 | USL League One Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tampa Bay Rowdies win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Birmingham Legion win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Birmingham Legion 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Birmingham Legion 1-4 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| May 3, 2025 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-2 Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
| Sep 12, 2024 | Birmingham Legion 2-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| May 11, 2024 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-1 Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
| May 8, 2024 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 6-4 Birmingham Legion | US Open Cup |
Last archived meeting: Birmingham Legion vs Tampa Bay Rowdies on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tampa Bay Rowdies score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Birmingham Legion score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Birmingham Legion | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tampa Bay Rowdies sit 1st in USL Championship (28 points from 13 matches) and Birmingham Legion sit 10th (12 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 28 |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 20 | 44 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 27 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion?
- The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Birmingham Legion.
- Where and when is Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion played?
- Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion is played on September 19, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Al Lang Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots