Hartlepool vs AFC Fylde: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC)The Suit Direct Stadium, Hartlepool, County Durham
The Footlab model makes AFC Fylde the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Hartlepool. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hartlepool vs AFC Fylde?
AFC Fylde starts as the favourite with a 151-point Elo edge (1,919 vs 1,769).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hartlepool have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; AFC Fylde have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sutton Utd(away) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aldershot Town(away) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Middlesbrough U21(home) | 0-10 | National League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Barrow(home) | 2-0 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Woking(away) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tamworth(away) | 2-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Wealdstone(home) | 2-2 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rylands(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Morecambe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Hartlepool win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 AFC Fylde win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | AFC Fylde 2-1 Hartlepool | National League |
| Nov 26, 2024 | Hartlepool 2-0 AFC Fylde | National League |
| Jan 9, 2024 | AFC Fylde 2-1 Hartlepool | National League |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Hartlepool 3-1 AFC Fylde | National League |
| Aug 13, 2019 | Hartlepool 2-2 AFC Fylde | National League |
| Mar 12, 2019 | AFC Fylde 4-2 Hartlepool | National League |
Last archived meeting: AFC Fylde vs Hartlepool on Mar 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Hartlepool score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Fylde score 1.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool | 1.4 | 2.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| AFC Fylde | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hartlepool sit 5th in National League (6 points from 3 matches) and AFC Fylde sit 13th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hartlepool | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | AFC Fylde | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hartlepool vs AFC Fylde?
- The Footlab model makes AFC Fylde the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Hartlepool.
- Where and when is Hartlepool vs AFC Fylde played?
- Hartlepool vs AFC Fylde is played on January 9, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at The Suit Direct Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.