Harrogate Town vs Carlisle: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)EnviroVent Stadium, Harrogate, North Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Harrogate Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Harrogate Town vs Carlisle?
Carlisle starts as the favourite with a 194-point Elo edge (1,897 vs 1,702).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Harrogate Town have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Carlisle have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Barrow(home) | 2-2 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Wealdstone(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Solihull Moors(home) | 5-2 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Scarborough Athletic(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Doncaster(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 4-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 1-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Worthing(home) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby County U21(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Harrogate Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Carlisle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2025 | Harrogate Town 0-2 Carlisle | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Harrogate Town 1-0 Carlisle | League Two |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Carlisle 1-1 Harrogate Town | League Two |
| Nov 14, 2023 | Carlisle 2-0 Harrogate Town | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Harrogate Town 1-0 Carlisle | League Cup |
| Feb 4, 2023 | Carlisle 0-1 Harrogate Town | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Harrogate Town vs Carlisle on Jul 26, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Harrogate Town score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Carlisle score 2.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate Town | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Carlisle | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Harrogate Town sit 3rd in National League (7 points from 3 matches) and Carlisle sit 12th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Harrogate Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Carlisle | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Harrogate Town vs Carlisle?
- The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Harrogate Town.
- Where and when is Harrogate Town vs Carlisle played?
- Harrogate Town vs Carlisle is played on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at EnviroVent Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.