Heracles vs NAC Breda: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 11:15 AM (UTC)Erve Asito, Almelo
The Footlab model makes Heracles the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for NAC Breda. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heracles vs NAC Breda?
A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate Heracles (1,792) and NAC Breda (1,792).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heracles have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; NAC Breda have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(away) | 6-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Den Bosch(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | VVV Venlo(away) | 4-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 3-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jong Ajax(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | VVV Venlo(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | OFI(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Heracles win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 NAC Breda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Heracles 0-1 NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
| Oct 29, 2025 | NAC Breda 1-4 Heracles | KNVB Beker |
| Sep 20, 2025 | NAC Breda 2-1 Heracles | Eredivisie |
| Jan 31, 2025 | NAC Breda 1-1 Heracles | Eredivisie |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Heracles 2-0 NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
| May 12, 2023 | NAC Breda 0-3 Heracles | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Heracles vs NAC Breda on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Heracles score 1.5 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; NAC Breda score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| NAC Breda | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Heracles sit 1st in Eerste Divisie (9 points from 3 matches) and NAC Breda sit 7th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 9 |
| 1 | Heracles | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 9 |
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heracles vs NAC Breda?
- The Footlab model makes Heracles the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for NAC Breda.
- Where and when is Heracles vs NAC Breda played?
- Heracles vs NAC Breda is played on January 10, 2027 at 11:15 AM (UTC) at Erve Asito, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.