Where and when is Hessen Kassel vs FSV Mainz 05 II played?

Hessen Kassel vs FSV Mainz 05 II is played on September 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Auestadion, in the Regionalliga - SudWest.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Hessen Kassel vs FSV Mainz 05 II: prediction and stats

Regionalliga - SudWestSudwest - 9Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Auestadion, Kassel

Hessen Kassel

FSV Mainz 05 II

The Footlab model makes Hessen Kassel the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for FSV Mainz 05 II. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hessen Kassel vs FSV Mainz 05 II?

A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Hessen Kassel (1,946) and FSV Mainz 05 II (1,915).

Hessen Kassel win39 %

Draw24 %

FSV Mainz 05 II win38 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hessen Kassel have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 II have 6, 4 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hessen Kassel
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 16, 2026	Freiburg II(away)	1-5	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 8, 2026	Eintracht Frankfurt II(home)	3-0	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 1, 2026	FC Schalke 04(home)	0-5	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	SV Rodinghausen(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 19, 2026	Lippstadt 08(home)	4-1	Friendlies Clubs

FSV Mainz 05 II
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Kickers Offenbach(away)	1-3	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 16, 2026	FSV Frankfurt(home)	2-1	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 8, 2026	FC 08 Homburg(away)	1-2	Regionalliga - SudWest
Jul 22, 2026	Kreuzlingen(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 11, 2026	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt(away)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Hessen Kassel win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 FSV Mainz 05 II win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Nov 30, 2025	FSV Mainz 05 II 2-1 Hessen Kassel	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 9, 2025	Hessen Kassel 3-0 FSV Mainz 05 II	Regionalliga - SudWest
Nov 23, 2024	Hessen Kassel 1-3 FSV Mainz 05 II	Regionalliga - SudWest
Jul 28, 2024	FSV Mainz 05 II 3-0 Hessen Kassel	Regionalliga - SudWest
Nov 17, 2023	FSV Mainz 05 II 4-1 Hessen Kassel	Regionalliga - SudWest
Aug 5, 2023	Hessen Kassel 2-0 FSV Mainz 05 II	Regionalliga - SudWest

Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 II vs Hessen Kassel on Nov 30, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Hessen Kassel score 1.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 II score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Hessen Kassel	1.7	2.1	3	8/15	11/15
FSV Mainz 05 II	1.4	1.4	4	9/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Hessen Kassel sit 12th in Regionalliga - SudWest (3 points from 2 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 II sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
12	Hessen Kassel	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
13	FSV Mainz 05 II	3	1	0	2	4	6	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hessen Kassel vs FSV Mainz 05 II?: The Footlab model makes Hessen Kassel the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for FSV Mainz 05 II.
Where and when is Hessen Kassel vs FSV Mainz 05 II played?: Hessen Kassel vs FSV Mainz 05 II is played on September 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Auestadion, in the Regionalliga - SudWest.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.