Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Tony Bezzina Stadium, Paola
The Footlab model makes Hamrun Spartans the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Hibernians. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans?
Hamrun Spartans starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (1,622 vs 1,487).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hibernians have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Hamrun Spartans have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Marsaxlokk(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sliema Wanderers(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Zabbar St. Patrick(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Mosta(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Birkirkara(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Birkirkara(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Mosta(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | NSI Runavik(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | NSI Runavik(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| May 15, 2026 | Valletta FC(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Hibernians win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Hamrun Spartans win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2026 | Hibernians 0-1 Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Hamrun Spartans 1-2 Hibernians | Super Cup |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Hamrun Spartans 2-0 Hibernians | Premier League |
| May 14, 2025 | Hamrun Spartans 1-2 Hibernians | FA Trophy |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Hibernians 1-2 Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Hibernians 0-3 Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans on Feb 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hibernians score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Hamrun Spartans score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernians | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Hamrun Spartans | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hibernians sit 6th in Premier League (3 points from 2 matches) and Hamrun Spartans sit 9th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hibernians | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Hamrun Spartans | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans?
- The Footlab model makes Hamrun Spartans the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Hibernians.
- Where and when is Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans played?
- Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans is played on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Tony Bezzina Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.